Re: False Flag?
citation needed
Jellied Eel,
Citation not happening, because I can't exactly remember. I think I heard it from Michael Kofman (who is a good source who doesn't tend to exaggerate or over-dramatise) on an episode of the War on the Rocks podcast. As I remember it he was discussing comment from Russian the kind of Russian mil-blogger Telegram channels that he follows - which are of varying reliability themselves. And of course, they were using Telegram to sometimes criticise the Russian Ministry of Defence - so it's also in their interests to say Telegram is vital. But I've seen other stories of units having to resort to Telgram to get through, from Russian sources for years. The only sources I read that quote from Russian Telegram are Mark Galeotti (a Russia analyst who I've a lot of time for), Rob Lee and Michael Kofman - who I came across discussing the Russian military build-up in 2021-2022 and were the ones who convinced me Russia was going to invade. Galleotti was sure they wouldn't.
The stories of crap comms within Ukraine have been consistent from Russian sources throughout the war, and from the very beginning. And is well corroborated by the very fact they were using Starlink at all, given the very real risks that you identify. I also remember Igor Girkin talking about it a lot, who's consistently criticised the conduct of the war in Ukraine from the POV of a Russian nationalist who thinks that they're doing a pisspoor job; He used to call Shoigu, "the Plywood Marshal" and took to calling Putin, "our unique strategic advantage". The man might be a war criminal, but he seems to have been a decent military analyst, with a sharp tongue, and you also can't deny his personal commitment, skill and bravery - given the success he achieved in starting a civil war in 2014.
But there's also the typical neo-Orientalism and assumption that Russians are ignorant 'orcs'. Not a nation who's rapidly developed and fielded Starlink competitors and other EWAR systems, has arguably better radars than us
No neo-orientalism here. I just happen to agree with Igor Girkin that the Russian army leadership are pisspoor at their jobs, and both their strategy and tactics in Ukraine have sucked. They invaded on about 13 axes of advance, with less than 200,000 troops on a front of over 1,000km! That pretty much guaranteed a disaster! Chief of the General Staff Gerasimov is supposed to be an old tank general - he ought to know better than that! Their logistics (and thus planning) at the start of the war was also an absolute disaster!
On the other hand, the tactical retreats from Kyiv, and later Kherson, were conducted brilliantly - retreating in the face of the enemy is bloody hard. Particularly in Kherson where the Ukrainians were on the offensive, and Russia had tens of thousands of men on the wrong side of a very wide river. Clearly Russia's staff-work is much better than Ukraine's. Also Surovikin was brought in as overall commander and made an immediate difference, including putting up an extremely good defence against Ukraine's counter-offensive - which showed that Ukraine's staff-work sucks, which makes sense given how ad hoc Ukraine's war effort is.
I don't see any Russian equivalent to Starlink doing them much good in Ukraine at the moment. Nor do I see any argument that Russia has the best radars, it wasn't true in the Cold War, and I don't see any evidence it's true now. Russia's electronic warfare has been consistently very good, they were better at it than NATO for much of the Cold War, although some NATO countries have made big advances in EW in recent years - and I get the idea that Russia is still fielding mostly old EW kit, which is still good, but less effective than modern software defined radio based kit. However I'd be prepared to be proved wrong, because as a civilian without specific clearance, so much of EW and radar is secret that it's very hard to know much for sure.
Russians are no stupider than anyone else. But dictatorships do tend to do stupid things in similar ways. And Russia is not the Soviet Union, which had a lot more resources at its disposal, and so we able to keep up (or just behind) NATO in lots of different technological areas. The only areas that I can think of that Russia are still around technological parity with NATO would be submarines and drone warfare (once they get over their reliance on Starlink). They've still got good EW, air defence and aircraft, but are steadily falling behind. And being almost as good, and having numbers, is often going to be good enough. They also started the war with lots of specialist capabilities like military engineering and mine warfare, which I suspect have taken a lot of damage, and will be hard to reconstitute afterwards.